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Software’s Cone of Uncertainty is a model for understanding estimation
uncertainty in software projects. Estimates inherently contain high
uncertainty early in projects. Uncertainty can be reduced once the
project is underway. Project leadership must take specific steps to
cause the reduction in uncertainty. Organizations should avoid making
commitments until the Cone has been reduced, because until then the
commitments will not be supportable. Software’s Cone also applies to
agile and iterative development although in a somewhat different ways
than it applies to sequential development.
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